Met Sore Mbah.
saya lagi ngantuk berat,dan juga sy kurang ngerti...hehhee...sorry..sorry..
saya bantu copas bahannya saja utk Mbah ya,
semoga nanti saya bangun tidur sdh banyak baca2an dari milis tercinta kita ini.
jadi bisa bahan pelajaran untuk saya menambah ilmu pengetahuan saya yg masih cetek.
hahhahaa..Thank"s a lot.
Triangle tersebut banyak jenisnya.
antara lain,symetrical Triangle,asending triangle,desending triangle dsb nya.
nahh pada Prinsipnya pola Contracting Triangle ini.
mengacu pada Prinsip2 seperti Symetrical Triangle.
hanya saja kalau symetrical Triangle tersebut,harga bisa naik dan turun.
Begitu pula dengan Contracting triangle yang Mbah Lampirkan ini.
selisihnya kalau di elliot wave.
arahnya sudah bisa ketahui,seandainya kita bisa mengcounting numering wave nya secara Tepat !
nah Triangle ini terjadi dengan mengacu pada Rumus.
Lower Highs dan Higher Lows
sehingga harga tertingginya cenderung menurun terus.
sedangkan harga rendahnya akan naik terus.
hingga mncapai sudut akhir dari pola Triangle ini.
maka harga akan break Out atau Break Down.
Nah selanjutnya silahkan diseksamai lagi chart IHSG tersebut.
akan break out atau Break Down ???
nah ini contohnya dari Contracting triangle.
I continue my conversations with Jeffrey Kennedy, editor of Elliott Wave International's Futures Junctures Service, where subscribers get news of daily and longer-term opportunities in commodities.
Vadim Pokhlebkin: Jeffrey, in your Daily Futures Junctures, you often say that your absolute favorite Elliott wave pattern is a diagonal triangle – because they offer high-probability trade setups that can be easily identified and traded. What about the other variety of triangle formations, the contracting ones?
Contracting Triangles: Explosions of Excitement
Triangles always precede the FINAL move within an Elliott wave impulse.
Jeffrey Kennedy: Well, those can be both frustrating and exciting. A contracting triangle is a sideways price move that consists of five waves labeled A, B, C, D and E. Triangles can form only as waves four, B or X – in other words, triangles always precede the final move within a sequence. That's a key point to remember. The frustrating part is that when you find yourself in the throes of a contracting triangle, they can go through all kinds of gyrations – and make you dodge those same gyrations – before finally ending in a strong thrust up or down. And that's the exciting part: After a market has contracted, it expands.
VP: Expands how? What do you mean?
JK: Take a look at this chart of a contracting triangle – it shows both the bull and bear market variety. Imagine that prices are tracing out a fourth-wave contracting triangle. The longer prices trade sideways, the swings within this move get smaller and smaller (that is, the market contracts). Once wave E of our imaginary triangle is complete, prices then thrust out of this pattern in an explosion of excitement (in other words, the market expands).
VP: And which direction does this "expansion" go?
JK: Well, remember that triangles always precede the final move within an impulsive Elliott wave sequence. They are corrective wave patterns, so you can always expect them to be completely retraced once complete. So, if it's a fourth-wave triangle you're looking at, it should resolve in wave five in the direction of the larger trend.
VP: How often do you see contracting triangles in commodities?
JK: You see them all the time, on all time frames. Like I said, they can form only as waves four, B or X, so any time you come to those waves in an Elliott wave sequence, often you see a triangle.
VP: And how reliable is this pattern – in other words, can you always expect it to resolve like you've just described?
JK: Well, every Elliott wave pattern fails sometimes; that's just the nature of forecasting the future. For example, last time I analyzed Cotton futures, I outlined a contracting triangle that finished at 44.99. The Elliott wave script then called for a thrust down in wave (5). But instead, prices exceeded the end of that triangle, and in so doing, invalidated that labeling. Cotton is the market I cover in tonight's Daily Futures Junctures (Dec. 17; online now. – Ed.), and I explain more what this negation means for the trend. It's a good example of how to handle such situations.
VP: Thanks for another valuable lesson, Jeffrey.
JK: My pleasure!
Those who follow the Wave Principle will tell you that knowing your wave patterns is vital. If you can identify the pattern, you can often tell the direction and nature of future price moves. There are many different patterns with names like zigzags, leading diagonals and expanded flats, but the one I'd like to focus on is the contracting triangle.
Contracting triangles are defined as five overlapping waves (labeled A-B-C-D-E) that cause a sideways movement with decreasing volume and volatility. It is delineated by converging trendlines that connect the termination points of waves A and C, and waves B and D. The chart below shows an idealized contracting triangle.
Let's look at a real-life example.
Above is a 5-minute chart of the Dow taken from Elliott Wave International's U.S. Intraday Stocks Specialty Service on Friday, June 18. The contracting triangle starts from the high of 10,483 and traces out all five waves before the day's close.
So now what? The pattern has been identified, but how does this help you? The answer is, now that the contracting triangle is complete, we can typically expect the following:
- Prices will "thrust" out of the triangle in a swift, short manner.
- After the "thrust", a reversal will follow.
After the editor of EWI's U.S. Intraday Stocks Specialty Service Tom Prindaville had identified this contracting triangle last Friday, he advised subscribers before the start of Monday's trading that prices would "gap up and turn down right away." And that's exactly what happened.
Tom Prindaville keeps his finger on the pulse of the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ. Get timely analysis throughout the trading session when you subscribe to the U.S. Intraday Stocks Specialty Service. Learn More>>
The above 5-minute chart shows the Dow's trading on Monday, June 21. Friday's contracting triangle and the resulting thrust early Monday is almost text book.