Contracting Triangle

The Synergi of TA and Elliott Wave: Case TRIANGLE......Re: [ob] BUMI Break out

From:	Analisa saham Kobayashi < This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it > View Contact
To:	This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it

Met Sore Mbah.

MINING: http://www.obrolanbandar.com/pidjkmingta.png ---------> Yes ! Contracting Triangle .untuk yg lainnya Bukan.! maaf ya ...kalau saya yang salah.!

saya lagi ngantuk berat,dan juga sy kurang ngerti...hehhee...sorry..sorry..

saya bantu copas bahannya saja utk Mbah ya,

semoga nanti saya bangun tidur sdh banyak baca2an dari milis tercinta kita ini.

jadi bisa bahan pelajaran untuk saya menambah ilmu pengetahuan saya yg masih cetek.

hahhahaa..Thank"s a lot.

salam hormat

kobayashi.

Triangle tersebut banyak jenisnya.
antara lain,symetrical Triangle,asending triangle,desending triangle dsb nya.

nahh pada Prinsipnya pola Contracting Triangle ini.
mengacu pada Prinsip2 seperti Symetrical Triangle.
hanya saja kalau symetrical Triangle tersebut,harga bisa naik dan turun.
Begitu pula dengan Contracting triangle yang Mbah Lampirkan ini.
selisihnya kalau di elliot wave.
arahnya sudah bisa ketahui,seandainya kita bisa mengcounting numering wave nya secara Tepat !

nah Triangle ini terjadi dengan mengacu pada Rumus.

Lower Highs dan Higher Lows
sehingga harga tertingginya cenderung menurun terus.
sedangkan harga rendahnya akan naik terus.
hingga mncapai sudut akhir dari pola Triangle ini.
maka harga akan break Out atau Break Down.

Nah selanjutnya silahkan diseksamai lagi chart IHSG tersebut.
akan break out atau Break Down ???

nah ini contohnya dari Contracting triangle.

by kobayashi.

___________________

I continue my conversations with Jeffrey Kennedy, editor of Elliott Wave International's Futures Junctures Service, where subscribers get news of daily and longer-term opportunities in commodities.

Vadim Pokhlebkin: Jeffrey, in your Daily Futures Junctures, you often say that your absolute favorite Elliott wave pattern is a diagonal triangle – because they offer high-probability trade setups that can be easily identified and traded. What about the other variety of triangle formations, the contracting ones?

Contracting Triangles: Explosions of Excitement
Triangles always precede the FINAL move within an Elliott wave impulse.

Jeffrey Kennedy: Well, those can be both frustrating and exciting. A contracting triangle is a sideways price move that consists of five waves labeled A, B, C, D and E. Triangles can form only as waves four, B or X – in other words, triangles always precede the final move within a sequence. That's a key point to remember. The frustrating part is that when you find yourself in the throes of a contracting triangle, they can go through all kinds of gyrations – and make you dodge those same gyrations – before finally ending in a strong thrust up or down. And that's the exciting part: After a market has contracted, it expands.

VP: Expands how? What do you mean?

JK: Take a look at this chart of a contracting triangle – it shows both the bull and bear market variety. Imagine that prices are tracing out a fourth-wave contracting triangle. The longer prices trade sideways, the swings within this move get smaller and smaller (that is, the market contracts). Once wave E of our imaginary triangle is complete, prices then thrust out of this pattern in an explosion of excitement (in other words, the market expands).

VP: And which direction does this "expansion" go?

JK: Well, remember that triangles always precede the final move within an impulsive Elliott wave sequence. They are corrective wave patterns, so you can always expect them to be completely retraced once complete. So, if it's a fourth-wave triangle you're looking at, it should resolve in wave five in the direction of the larger trend.

VP: How often do you see contracting triangles in commodities?

JK: You see them all the time, on all time frames. Like I said, they can form only as waves four, B or X, so any time you come to those waves in an Elliott wave sequence, often you see a triangle.

VP: And how reliable is this pattern – in other words, can you always expect it to resolve like you've just described?

JK: Well, every Elliott wave pattern fails sometimes; that's just the nature of forecasting the future. For example, last time I analyzed Cotton futures, I outlined a contracting triangle that finished at 44.99. The Elliott wave script then called for a thrust down in wave (5). But instead, prices exceeded the end of that triangle, and in so doing, invalidated that labeling. Cotton is the market I cover in tonight's Daily Futures Junctures (Dec. 17; online now. – Ed.), and I explain more what this negation means for the trend. It's a good example of how to handle such situations.

VP: Thanks for another valuable lesson, Jeffrey.

JK: My pleasure!

______________________________________________________________________________________________

Those who follow the Wave Principle will tell you that knowing your wave patterns is vital. If you can identify the pattern, you can often tell the direction and nature of future price moves. There are many different patterns with names like zigzags, leading diagonals and expanded flats, but the one I'd like to focus on is the contracting triangle.

Contracting triangles are defined as five overlapping waves (labeled A-B-C-D-E) that cause a sideways movement with decreasing volume and volatility. It is delineated by converging trendlines that connect the termination points of waves A and C, and waves B and D. The chart below shows an idealized contracting triangle.

Let's look at a real-life example.

Above is a 5-minute chart of the Dow taken from Elliott Wave International's U.S. Intraday Stocks Specialty Service on Friday, June 18. The contracting triangle starts from the high of 10,483 and traces out all five waves before the day's close.

So now what? The pattern has been identified, but how does this help you? The answer is, now that the contracting triangle is complete, we can typically expect the following:

Prices will "thrust" out of the triangle in a swift, short manner.
After the "thrust", a reversal will follow.

After the editor of EWI's U.S. Intraday Stocks Specialty Service Tom Prindaville had identified this contracting triangle last Friday, he advised subscribers before the start of Monday's trading that prices would "gap up and turn down right away." And that's exactly what happened.

Tom Prindaville keeps his finger on the pulse of the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ. Get timely analysis throughout the trading session when you subscribe to the U.S. Intraday Stocks Specialty Service. Learn More>>

The above 5-minute chart shows the Dow's trading on Monday, June 21. Friday's contracting triangle and the resulting thrust early Monday is almost text book.

Salam

kobayashi

http://analisasahamkobayashi.com

----- Forwarded Message ----
From: jsx_consultant < This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it >
To: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it
Sent: Sun, February 27, 2011 2:59:35 PM
Subject: The Synergi of TA and Elliott Wave: Case TRIANGLE......Re: [ob] BUMI Break out

Mana nih ahli TA klasik, kok pada diam saja... hehehe...

Coba embah bantu dari pandangan Elliott Wave:
- Pola Triangle Contracting dan Expanding adalah
pola Corrective wave
- Pada Contracting Triangle akan terjadi Lower High pada
perimeter atas Higher Low pada perimeter bawah
- Pada Expanding Triangle akan terjadi Higher High pada
perimeter atas dan Lower Low pada perimeter bawah
- Jadi Triangle Contracting dan Expanding BUKANLAH suatu
Impulse wave !!!

Coba anda lihat gambar IHSG ini:
- http://www.obrolanbandar.com/pidjkseta.png
- Ini adalah Contracting Triangle selama IHSG bergerak didalam
Triangle
- Per definisi diatas: Ini adalah pola Contracting Triangle

Menurut teori EW:
- Contracting Triangle terjadi pada Wave B dan Wave 4

Akibatnya:
- Pola Contracting Triangle IHSG ini adalah Wave B JIKA
IHSG tidak KELUAR dari perimeter Triangle ini.

Jadi untuk SEMENTARA, wave count IHSG ada pada Wave B... hehehe...

Note:
- Perhatikan Wave counting INI dilakukan dengan dengan LOGIKA dan
ATURAN EW dan bukan ASAL ASALAN..
- Tapi jika IHSG bisa naik menembus perimeter ATAS maka
Ini bukan Contracting Triangle !!!
- Jadi Wave counting itu BISA berubah menyesuaikan diri
dengan Wave development !!!

--- In This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it , "jsx_consultant" <jsx-consultant@...> wrote:
>
> Untuk PEMANASAN, embah kirimkan beberapa index sectoral:
> - Pertama kita bahas dengan pendekatan TA klasik TANPA EW.
> - Coba anda tentukan Index sectoral mana yg punya pola
> Triangle ?
> - Dan yg mana yg bukan pola Triangle ?
> - Dan sebutkan pola Triangle type apa ?
> - Sebutkan juga, sector yg bakal naik dan turun ? dan alasannya.
>
> - FINANCE: http://www.obrolanbandar.com/pidfinata.png
> - MINING: http://www.obrolanbandar.com/pidjkmingta.png ---------> Yes ! Contracting Triangle .untuk yg lainnya Bukan.!
> - CONSUMER: http://www.obrolanbandar.com/pidjkconsta.png
> - AGRICULTURE: http://www.obrolanbandar.com/pidjkagrita.png
> - BASIC INDUSTRY: http://www.obrolanbandar.com/pidjkbindta.png
> - TRADE: http://www.obrolanbandar.com/pidjktradta.png
> - INFRA STRUCTURE http://www.obrolanbandar.com/pidjkinfata.png
>
> Note:
> - Embah jarang sekali pake TA klasik Triangle, jadi kalo embah
> salah2, mohon dimaklumi...
>
> --- In This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it , "jsx_consultant" <jsx-consultant@> wrote:
> >
> > Tidak semua permasalahan gerakan harga bisa dipecahkan dengan
> > Elliott wave karena Elliott wave sering HANYA memberikan ALTERNATIVE
> > route gerakan harga TANPA memberikan petunjuk YG MANA route harga
> > yg akan ditempuh.
> >
> > Misal pada grafik BUMI yg dikirim pak Halim, dia hanya mengirim
> > satu alternative route harga yg mungkin dilalui oleh BUMI yaitu
> > route bearish. Padahal ada alternative lain yaitu route bullish
> > yg mungkin terjadi.
> >
> > Pembuatan Route harga dilakukan dengan jalan melakukan Wave Counting
> > yaitu penomomoran pada wave dengan menggunakan prinsip2 Elliott
> > Wave seperti pada gambar yg dilakukan pak Halim pada grafik BUMI.
> >
> > Penomoran2 itu tidak BOLEH dilakukan sembarangan tapi harus
> > mengikuti ATURAN2 BAKU seperti tertera pada Prinsip2 EW.
> >
> > Kelemahan EW:
> > - Meskipun anda sudah MENGUASAI prinsip2 EW secara fasih,
> > belum berarti anda sudah bisa memecahkan semua masalah technical.
> > - Karena setiap saat kita dihadapkan dengan ADANYA BEBERAPA wave
> > counting yg VALID, kita harus MEMILIH wave count mana atau
> > route harga mana yg akan dilalui oleh harga.
> >
> > Kelemahan TA ini bisa ditutup/dilengkapi dengan FA, TA yg lain,
> > BA dll.
> >
> > Hari ini coba kita bahas penggabungan TA grafik konvensional
> > dengan Elliott Wave pada pola TRIANGLE:
> > - TA dengan grafik klasik mengenal pola TRIANGLE
> > - EW juga mengenal pola TRIANGLE.
> >
> > Coba kita GABUNGKAN metoda Classic TA ini dengan EW, dan kita
> > lihat apakah penggabungan kedua tool ini akan mengakibatkan
> > SINERGI yaitu hasil dengan metoda TOOL GABUNGAN akan LEBIH BAIK
> > dibanding dengan analisa masing2 tool secara TERPISAH ?
> >
> > Mudah mudahan kita BERSAMA bisa mendapatkan sesuatu yg BERHARGA
> > pada hari Minggu ini. Dan hasilnya kita bisa terapkan pada
> > market saat ini karena SAAT INI market ada pada Coorective wave
> > sehingga akan banyak ditemukan pola TRIANGLE.
> >
> > Ada yg mau bantu embah dengan Pola TRIANGLE dengan pendekatan
> > TA klasik ?. Jika ada embah persilahkan....

> > --- In This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it , Kelinci Homo <boysngirls@> wrote:

> > > seperti ini ??
> > >
> > > On Sat, Feb 26, 2011 at 5:42 PM, A9 <artomoro9@> wrote:

> > > > Pusing amat ama pola.

> > > > Wave B aja dah.

> > > > "hope by rules, trade by instinct"
> > > > ------------------------------
> > > > *From: * "JT" <jsxtrader@>
> > > > *Sender: * This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it
> > > > *Date: *Sat, 26 Feb 2011 10:45:30 +0700
> > > > *To: *< This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it >
> > > > *ReplyTo: * This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it
> > > > *Cc: *< This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it >
> > > > *Subject: *RE: [ob] BUMI Break out
> > > >
> > > > @ JSX Surfers - Ini chart yg saya janjikan semalam…., KASAT MATA keliatan
> > > > jelas bukan Triangle … J

> > > > Pola Triangle adalah pola yg terbentuk saat konsolidasi/sideways, sementara
> > > > BUMI sejak Januari TIDAK dalam kondisi konsolidasi, tapi DOWN TREND. Bisa
> > > > dilihat jelas dgn terbentuknya Lower High dan Lower Low …., sementara
> > > > seharusnya pola triangle terbentuk dari beberapa Lower High dan beberapa
> > > > HIGHER LOW (high-nya turun terus, sementara low-nya naik terus).

> > > > Kalau anda mau pakai LOW tgl 10 dan 23 Feb sebagai uptrend line, lantas
> > > > titik2 High-nya mau pakai yg mana?, dibutuhkan minimal dua titik sementara
> > > > baru ada 1 high pada range tsb yaitu tgl 18/02.

> > > >
> > > > Jadi bukannya saya tidak sependapat dgn Investopedia, tapi karena pada
> > > > dasarnya memang syarat terbentuknya pola tsb tidak terpenuhi…, J

> > > > JT

> > > >
> > > > [image:
> > > > http://i.investopedia.com/inv/articles/site/techanalysis/091003_sym.gif]

> > > > *CHART BUMI*

> > > > *Download<http://go.metastock.com/forms/trial?whc=JSXTrader&pc=EQ-JSXTrader>MetaStock Real Time + Data Feed, Free 30 days Trial, Click
> > > > **HERE <http://go.metastock.com/forms/trial?whc=JSXTrader&pc=EQ-JSXTrader>
> > > > **to take advantage of this no-obligation, limited-time offer !*
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > *From:* This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it [mailto:
> > > > This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it ] *On Behalf Of *JT™
> > > > *Sent:* 26 Februari 2011 0:16
> > > > *To:* This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it
> > > > *Subject:* Re: [ob] BUMI Break out

> > > > Saya sih ngga punya pendapat yg bertentangan dgn Investopedia dibawah.. :)
> > > > ... saya katakan bukan pola triangle karena ya secara kasat mata saja sdh
> > > > jelas contoh gambar dari investopedia dibawah sangat jauh berbeda dgn chart
> > > > BUMI, cuma ujungnya aja yg sama, starting pointnya ya beda banget pak...,
> > > > memang ada dua titik low sebagai syarat bisa menarik uptrend line, tapi ya
> > > > segitu terlalu pendeklah, jauh banget dibandingkan panjang down
> > > > trendlinenya.., sehingga mana bisa kita membentuk bidang segitiga dari
> > > > titik2 hi dan low yg ada....
> > > >
> > > > Bsk deh saya kirimin chart BUMI, nanti anda bisa bandingkan dgn contoh dari
> > > > investopedia dibawah....

> > > > JT

> > > > Milis : This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it
> > > > Tweet: @JT_jsxtrader
> > > > FB : JsxTrader@
> > > > ------------------------------

> > > > *From: *JSX Surfers <jsxsurfers@>

> > > > *Date: *Fri, 25 Feb 2011 18:36:55 +0700
> > > >
> > > > *To: *< This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it >

> > > > *Cc: *JT<jsxtrader@>

> > > > *Subject: *Re: [ob] BUMI Break out

> > > > Saya liat ini mirip dengan Symmetrical Triangle sebagaimana yang dijelaskan
> > > > investopedia dibawah ini:

> > > > *Symmetrical Patterns **
> > > > *So far we have seen two triangle patterns. One, from an uptrend and
> > > > bullish market move and one from a downtrend with a decidedly bearish look.
> > > > Symmetrical triangles, on the other hand, are thought of as continuation
> > > > patterns developed in markets that are, for the most part, aimless in
> > > > direction. The market seems listless in its direction. The supply and demand
> > > > therefore seem to be one and the same.

> > > > During this period of indecision, the highs and the lows seem to come
> > > > together in the point of the triangle with virtually no significant volume.
> > > > Investors just don't know what position to take. However, when the investors
> > > > do figure out which way to take the issue, it heads north or south with big
> > > > volume in comparison to that of the indecisive days and or weeks leading up
> > > > to the breakout. Nine times out of ten, the breakout will occur in the
> > > > direction of the existing trend. But, if you are looking for an entry point
> > > > following a symmetrical triangle, jump into the fray at the breakout point.

> > > > Figure 3

> > > > These patterns, both the symmetrical triangles on the bullish as well as
> > > > the bearish side are known to experience early breakouts that give investors
> > > > a "head fake". Hold off for a day or two after the breakout and determine
> > > > whether or not the breakout is for real. Experts tend to look for a one-day
> > > > closing price above the trendline in a bullish pattern and below the
> > > > trendline in bearish chart pattern.

> > > > Remember, look for volume at the breakout and confirm your entry signal
> > > > with a closing price outside the trendline.
> > > >
> > > > jika, Prof JT berpendapat lain, Please elaborate
> > > >
> > > > 2011/2/25 JT <jsxtrader@>

> > > > Maap Pak, sekedar sharing aje…, saya pikir polanya clearly bukan triangle…

> > > > Setuju dgn target 3150 sebagai target pertama (short term)

> > > > JT

> > > > *From:* This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it [mailto:
> > > > This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it ] *On Behalf Of *JSX Surfers
> > > > *Sent:* 25 Februari 2011 11:10

> > > > *To:* This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it ; This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it
> > > >
> > > > *Subject:* [ob] BUMI Break out

> > > > BUMI menunjukkan Break Out Triangle Pattern, Level 2800, Target menuju 3150

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Last Updated on Sunday, 27 February 2011 16:31

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